(fwd) Linux Growth Indicators.

["Robert G. Brown" <bob@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

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From: r.e.ballard@usa.net
Newsgroups: comp.os.linux.advocacy,alt.destroy.microsoft
Subject: Linux Growth Indicators.
Date: Thu, 02 Jul 1998 22:32:05 GMT
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It looks like Microsoft may have more to worry about than some
users that are having trouble with Windows 98 upgrades, and
some OEMs who are advising users NOT to upgrade to '98.

I've been tracking several numbers to try and get a sense of the
overall growth rate of Linux relative to Microsoft.  Here are
some of those numbers.

Book Titles:
   Every month, I go into a specific Barnes and Nobel Bookstore and count
   the number of titles about Linux or UNIX (Since most UNIX books work
   the same on Linux).  In July 1997, the count was 21.  In January, the
   count was 47.  In July 1998, the count was 147 book titles.  Book
   publishers are not stupid.  They are printing these books because people
   are buying them.  Most publishers aren't even interested in printing a
   book unless they think they can sell at least 1/4 million copies.  Some
   of these books were in their 3rd, 4th, or 5th printing.

Usenet Traffic:
   Each week, I count the number of articles containing the words Linux
   and Windows.  What's relevant here is the ratio.  In July of 1997,
   there was 1 Linux article for every 10 Windows articles.  In January,
   the number was one Linux article for every 6 Windows articles.  In
   July, there was 1 Linux article for every 3 Windows articles.  In
   addition, Linux was mentioned in 1 out of 20 Windows articles (both).

Web Traffic:
   AltaVista - Linux traffic is up substantially - to over 4 million pages,
   nearly double that of only 6 months ago.  Also substantial compared to
   the 13 million pages for Windows (a 1:3 ratio again).

The Latest data on the Linux counter has estimates ranging between 5 and 33
million users.  Graphs of the Linux counter, and appearant problems with
the posting program indicate that this counter may not be reliable.  Even so,
over 150 users/day are officially adding themselves to the ranks of Linux
users.

Net traffic at www.loki.org could not be monitored since they exceeded the
7 billion instructions/second restriction, making them a military problem.
They had another "spike" following the release of Extreme Linux.

It would be noteworthy to see what the traffic at the Red Hat and Caldera
sites have been doing.

In summary, it looks like the Linux user base has more than doubled since
January.  Worse yet, based on the "Advocacy Factor" (the number of supporters
and their enthusiasm for support), Linux has grown to 1/3 of the PC market.

Worse yet, most of the Windows traffic is from people who HAVE used windows
and DON'T seem to like it (Based on random samplings).  The few true Windows
advocates seem to have not used any system other than Microsoft.

These numbers are more of a "barometer", giving a sense of the pressures
and forces driving the market.  It is intended to give a sense of the
overall activity and interest in Linux.

If in fact, the Linux community has doubled in 6 months, that's a 13%/month
growth rate.  If you accept the more conservative estimates of 11 million
users, that means that the Linux community is growing by over 1.4 million
users/month.  More fine grained analysis indicates the growth rate could be
as high as 15%/month (the rate of growth has increased each month).  That
could put the growth rate as high over 1.6 million users/month.

Worse yet, the feedback on Windows 98, which had been a "wait and see" factor
seems to indicate that Windows 98 isn't worth waiting for.

New Linux computers from VA Research, Corel, and several other LC makers,
along with several companies who configure standard PCs could be getting
a pretty substantial growth rate.  Sales of "Loose motherboards" and "loose
hard drives" could be indicators that a Linux market is begginning to blossom.
Many of these "second drives" could easily be adapted to support Linux.

Linux is also getting much more press, and not as an interesting novelty, but
as a "miracle system".	Linux has become much like a bamboo tree.  Bamboo
trees spend four years underground, doing almost nothing visible, then
suddenly shoot up seemingly overnight.

The Linux community, in the "underground" of public and private "closet case"
applications, has established a firm foundation - a solid set of roots, from
which to grow an incredibly effective system.

Microsoft's lack of support for legacy products has damaged the customer
relations with companies like Toshiba, Compaq, and Dell.  Worse yet, the
Windows 98 incompatibilities could drive those customers into converting
to Linux instead.

This is also a lousy time to "blow the cookies".  There will be thousands
of teens and pre-teens who have been hearing about Linux, have even been
playing with Linux, and could be upgrading their "dinky" machines all
summer.  If dad checks it out, and like what he sees, Linux could be
getting lots of positive exposure.  Who knows, maybe some kids will start
a "Linux Conversion Business", and get retailers, dealers, and other kids
involved.  In 1976, some kids got exited about something.  Steve Jobs, Steve
Wazniak, Bill Gates, Paul Allen, and a few others whose companies have grown
a bit.

Sleep Well Mr Gates...

Rex Ballard - http://www.access.digex.net/~rballard


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