Commentary and reflections on the Motley Fool note...

["Robert G. Brown" <bob@xxxxxxx>]

"R A Kaup sr." <papaw626@earthlink.net> quoted:
>"According to the Gartner Group's estimate, Linux passed the 10 million user
>mark during 1998 and was growing at 212% annually at the time.
Keep in mindthat this is merely a guess. A good guess, a very well educated 
guess, but a guess still. It is VERY hard to estimate how many people are 
actually USING anything. As much as 18 months ago, you could find guesstimates
far higher than this, but it's a very good sign that these very conservative
people put "over 10 million" in writing. Consider the following:

   - How many people got free copies of Linux?
   - How many get it from discount sources?
   - From FTP sites?
   - How many reject Linux and discard it?
   - How many install Linux 8 times from one CDROM?

You can ask similar questions of proprietary OS'es that are not coupled to 
specifc hardware. For example, how many people buy NT, then toss it, or have
obtained pirated copies?  Microsoft still counts anyone who bought NT as a
user, and misses the pirates. so there's inacuracy there.

My point is that these numbers are really very soft, but getting Gartner Group 
to spell L-I-N-U-X 18 months ago was almost impossible. We should be thankful
(holiday reference!:) that Linux has come this far...

>Assuming it slows to 100% annual growth (which it has maintained since its 
>introduction in 1990),...
There's no reason to think it will do so, other than a recession, and then we
all may have other things the worry about than which OS has market share.:)

>it will surpass the Windows installed base in about three years.
I was called a "Lunatic" for this prediction in September of 98. Recently,
the same people dubbed me a "visionary".

Utter nonsence! I was neither, at neither time. I simply saw exponential growth
a little sooner than a few others. The labels, supplied by others, show this.

>At that point, the network effects will favor Linux and hinder Windows
I must differ with this statement. While the "network effect" of Windows may
be damages or broken, the real "network effect" caused by the sucess of Linux
would be the ascendency of open, freely documented and available standards, a
playing field level enough for anyone to understand and prosper upon. A world
in which Linux dominates is a world where we care less about what OS you are
running, since we all exchange information with open protocols.

>Strangely enough, many of us in the software industry view the trial as an
>interesting supplement to the main action. 
Strange? Ultimatly, the market must make the decisions, and over the long haul,
these choices are based on product quality. When the antitrust action is done
leveling the playing field, don't expect it to be "perfectly" level. only the
truly excessive inequalities will have been remedied; Microsoft or it's result-
ing companies will still be vigourous and relentless competitors, with large
resources and market power at their disposal, representing a formidible force.

But the less uneven playing field will be subject to a stronger force, we can 
all hope, and that is the force of a free and unfettered market, where choices
are available and clear, and it's possible for people to compete freely in the
industry, and make informed decisions about products and services.

>Microsoft IS an abusive monopoly, and unrestrained perhaps it could force
>the entire computer industry into stagnation....
Maybe, but there are indiations that the antitrust action may only have sped
up the process a bit. Without antitrust, the shifting market might have taken
more time to do its work, but exponential trends are very, very difficult 
things to stop.

>....But we're busy working on its replacement."
Perhaps he's right, but let's not get cocky.

I am reminded of the motto of Thinking Machines Corporation:

     "We want to build computer systems that will be proud of us"

Ambitious goal, and whipsmart people. Ever hear of 'em?

                                            Have a great Thanksgiving!
                                                        ---> RGB <---